By Munir Akram
AS an extreme summer engulfs the Indo-Gangetic
plane, the political temperature is also rising. The Indian defence minister’s
extraordinary statement about “fighting terror with terror” amounts to an open
admission of India’s role in
sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan
and confirms the Pakistan Army’s accusation of India’s role in the Balochistan
insurgency. The Pakistan
army chief’s remarks calling for a solution for Kashmir on the basis of UN
resolutions was an obvious reminder that India should not forget its own
vulnerabilities.
India’s
pronouncements have become increasingly strident. The Indian foreign minister
has reiterated the refusal to resume a dialogue with Pakistan
unless India’s
preconditions are met. The defence minister, apart from the terror gaffe, has
revived the far-fetched concern about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons being captured
by extremists, in this case by the largely absent extremists of IS or the
‘Islamic State’. Indian officials have also floated the ludicrous claim that Saudi Arabia intends to buy nuclear weapons “off
the shelf” from Pakistan.
Notably, India launched a
protest with China
regarding the plan for an ‘economic corridor’ from Gwadar to Khunjerab.
The reasons for the escalating Indian rhetoric
against Pakistan
are not far to find. First, India
is frustrated that Pakistan
has not wilted under the pressure New Delhi
hoped to generate by cutting off talks and ‘isolating’ Pakistan by its
‘terrorism’ accusations. On the contrary, Pakistan
has evolved a more normal relationship with the US,
obtained a major strategic commitment from China
and opened a new chapter with Afghanistan.
Second, India
is concerned that a Pakistan-Afghan normalisation will neutralise the western
front India opened against Pakistan (through its support for the
Balochistan Liberation Army insurgency and secret sponsorship of the
Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan)
and reduce Indian influence in Afghanistan.
India worked hard with its
friends in Kabul to generate opposition to
President Ghani’s outreach to Pakistan
and the putative deal for Kabul to act against
the BLA and the TTP while Pakistan
works to promote reconciliation between Ghani and the Afghan Taliban. India has had
partial success. President Ghani visited India
and has lately voiced discontent with Pakistan. Kabul’s cooperation against the BLA and the
TTP also appears to have slowed down. The Pakistan Army’s open allegation of India’s role in Balochistan was also addressed
to Kabul.
India is frustrated that Pakistan has not wilted under the pressure New Delhi hoped to generate.
Third, India
opposes China’s rising role
in the region, including in Afghanistan,
and particularly its renewed strategic and economic commitment to Pakistan
illustrated by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative. The realisation
of this plan would be a major setback to India’s
desire to dominate South Asia and isolate Pakistan.
Fourth, domestically, Modi’s ‘shine’ appears to
be fading. So far, he has not delivered jobs or improved the lives of the poor.
The BJP’s defeat in the Delhi
elections to the Aam Aadmi party displayed its slide in popularity.
Pakistan-bashing is the standard technique used by Indian governments to revive
flagging domestic support. This is, of course, second nature to the extremists
of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Besides Modi, the defence
minister, national security adviser and the RSS-linked army chief appear all
too eager to prove their credentials to their core constituency.
It is difficult to predict how far India’s ‘fighting talk’ will remain just talk or
escalate into another crisis with Pakistan. Unfortunately, there are
no modalities in place between India
and Pakistan
for crisis prevention. There are several scenarios in which the two nuclear
powers could find themselves engaged in a dangerous confrontation.
It seems certain that, following China’s
commitment to CPEC, India ( and others) may see the fostering of violence in
Balochistan not only as pressure point against Pakistan (to ensure its ‘good behaviour’
in Kashmir), but also as a means to prevent China’s direct access to the
Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf and West Asia. Indian (and other) mischief in
Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan
may escalate. President Ghani may be persuaded not to cooperate with Pakistan in eliminating the support base of the
insurgency in Afghanistan.
If Pakistan’s
counter-insurgency measures in Balochistan are not successful, Kashmir may be brought back into the equation, setting
the stage for another India-Pakistan confrontation.
A Kashmir crisis is possible, even without Pakistan’s
intervention. The BJP government’s policies in Kashmir — settling Hindus in the
Valley, eroding India-held Kashmir’s special status and continued suppression
of dissent — have already provoked widespread protest from Kashmiri Muslims. A
new Kashmiri revolt is probable. It would evoke popular support in Pakistan,
leading to another India-Pakistan crisis.
The spark for such a crisis may be lit by another
terror attack in India.
Given the anti-Muslim postures of the BJP-RSS government, Muslim militancy is
likely to manifest itself more strongly in India. Terror groups, like Al Qaeda
or IS, have already declared their intention to instigate such terror attacks. India’s Pavlovian reaction would be to blame Pakistan.
Any one of these scenarios can lead to a
disastrous conflict. While India
may feel tempted to test its ‘limited war’ concept, Pakistan
would operate under the assumption that India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine (of
sudden and massive attack) is operational. A major military engagement is
likely to rapidly involve a missile exchange, with Pakistan
seeking to break up large Indian formations, and India responding with attacks on
command centres and strategic assets. Since most missiles and aircraft are
‘“dual capable’ (they can be armed with conventional or nuclear weapons), the
danger of a conflict escalating to the nuclear level is extremely high.
The destiny of billions cannot be left in the
hands of leaders motivated by religious and historical antagonisms or to hope
and chance. Over almost 70 years, India
and Pakistan
have been unable to resolve their disputes rationally. The international
community, especially the major powers, must play a more active and responsible
role in preventing another war whose catastrophic consequences could
reverberate far beyond South Asia.
The article was published in DAWN on 07 June
2015.
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