Pakistan’s Relevance in US-China Power Play in Asia Pacific

Sarah Khan

In November 2011, President Obama declared, “the United States is turning its attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region.” This announcement of a deliberate “rebalance” to Asia and the Pacific reflected the American people’s growing recognition of the importance of the region to US interests and the need to reassert American engagement and leadership after the uncertainty caused by the 2008 financial crisis and a decade of combat operations in Southwest Asia. US and its policymakers have often announced that its “Rebalance to Asia” is based on enhancing economic activity of US in the region, but steps taken by US especially devoting 60 percent of forces to this region suggests that it is more than economic. US is seeking economic and military alliances in the region with special focus on India. In such a scenario, Pakistan may have to suffer repercussions if it is not timely aligned strategically with key players of rebalance strategy.

Since 2012, however, the international security environment has become significantly more complicated. China has established Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) to counter growing US influence in the region. It has also accelerated the pace of its island-building in the East and South China Seas, and North Korea has continued developing its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. The US intelligence community predicts that in 20 years, China will be the largest nuclear nation in the world, producing over a trillion kWhs a year from nuclear power, will have almost a billion middle class, and will have sufficient nuclear weapons to deter even the United States. Meanwhile, Russian revanchist activities and the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant have competed with the Asia-Pacific for attention and resources.

In the recent past, India has endorsed the US stand on the South China Sea islands dispute with China by reaffirming “importance of freedom of navigation and over-flight throughout the region, including in the South China Sea” and vowed support for “a regional security architecture”. The vast scope and depth of the present and planned Indo-US military relationship include co-production of advanced defense articles, joint research on advanced jet engines and aircraft carrier technologies, and strategic cooperation on maritime security. The US-India growing cooperation in the realm of defense with special focus on countering China has obvious and significant negative implications for Pakistan’s security as well.

Pakistan has become relevant in rebalance policy especially after signing China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a key project of One Belt One Road (OBOR) strategy of China to counter growing US economic and military influence in the region. Moreover, it has also become a member of Shinghai Cooperation Organization and it is also prospective founding member of Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB). As US-India strategic alliance is enhancing with each passing day. At US behest, India has been the world’s largest arms importer, buying over $100 billion in weapons each year, two-thirds of which are deployed against Pakistan.  

In such a scenario, strategic cooperation with China will remain critical. Pakistan must also endeavor to enhance its strategic collaboration with China by signing defense deals on sharing of cutting edge military technologies. China should be expected to share its most advanced weapons systems with Pakistan, including nuclear submarines, stealth aircraft, and its anti-aircraft carrier missiles. In addition to this, Pakistan may also enhance cooperation with China friendly states in the Asia Pacific and must participate actively in China led economic initiatives in the region to counter growing Indian influence. In addition to this following may be “must do” for Pakistan.

Amid growing US-Russia tensions in a new cold war era, a bloc comprised of China-Russia-Pakistan and Iran can be a real counterweight to US-India emerging power bloc in the region. Hence, Pakistan also needs to enhance military and diplomatic cooperation with Russia. Losing Afghanistan and Iran as friendly neighbors may be precarious for Pakistan from security point of view. Fostering an understanding with Iran is essential. Pakistan and Iran can cooperatively normalise their respective parts of Baluchistan and stabilise Afghanistan — unless Iran decides to align itself with India. In Afghanistan, Pakistan should clearly draw its ‘red lines’: no Indian military presence or use of Afghan territory for subversion against Pakistan. While continuing to support inter-Afghan dialogue, Islamabad should be prepared for a collapse in Kabul and prolonged Afghan chaos.

In the realm of international relations, the famous cliché’ goes ‘there are no permanent friends no permanent enemies, only national interests are permanent’. Following realist paradigm, there must be no compromise on national interests and Pakistan should continue its diplomatic engagement with the US, although there may be rough times ahead in the relationship. The US-China rivalry may aggravate in the coming years due to clash of interests in the Asia Pacific. Eventually, once China acquires comparable military power, and large parts of Eurasia are incorporated into China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ economic community, Washington may come to accept coexistence and cooperation with the new superpower. In such a scenario, Pakistan’s regional influence will also enhance manifold as CPEC will become a reality thus resulting in improving economic indicators and inviting foreign direct investments. Then, the US may also come to recognize that Pakistan is a critical country whose cooperation is vital to ensure regional stability in south and west Asia, to prevent nuclear non-proliferation, and to and defeat global terrorism. Perhaps then, Washington will respect Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns.