ZAHID HUSSAIN
The writer is an
author and journalist.
THE decision by
Brahamdagh Bugti to seek political asylum in India is ominous; it is a
dangerous twist to rising regional tensions. The move comes at a time when
India has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric indicating it will exploit
Pakistan’s “vulnerabilities” in the troubled Balochistan province.
Brahamdagh and other
Baloch separatist leaders have been living in exile in Europe for the past many
years. His decision to move to India apparently came after the Swiss government
rejected his request for asylum. Although there is nothing new about the Indian
connection with the Baloch insurgency, the granting of asylum would in a way
formalise New Delhi’s use of sub-conventional warfare to undermine the state of
Pakistan.
Narendra Modi’s speech
on India’s Independence Day vowing to raise the issue of ‘Pakistani atrocities
in Balochistan’ in international forums highlighted his government’s policy of
what is described as ‘offensive defence’. It is meant to be a tit-for-tat campaign
against Pakistan’s ‘proxy war’ in Kashmir. The strategy is to press Pakistan’s
fault lines to divert attention from the mass anti-India revolt in occupied
Kashmir.
Brahamdagh, who leads
the Balochistan Republican Party, one of the largest insurgent groups, fled the
country after Gen Musharraf’s regime launched military operations against his
grandfather Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti. A former governor of the province and one
of the most powerful tribal chieftains, he was killed in 2006 plunging the
province into yet another round of bloody insurgency.
Brahamdagh’s decision to seek refuge in India has closed all
doors for a political solution.
Unsurprisingly,
Brahamdagh and other exiled Baloch insurgent leaders hailed Modi’s harangue.
Open Indian support has given renewed impetus to those leaders who seemed to
have lost a lot of ground in Balochistan. Interestingly, just months ago,
Brahamdagh had shown his willingness to reach some kind of a negotiated
political settlement with the Pakistani authorities.
In fact, last year,
Brahamdagh even had talks with the then Balochistan chief minister Abdul Malik
Baloch and federal minister Abdul Qadir Baloch in Geneva, raising hopes of his
returning to the country and ending his nine-year exile. But it did not happen,
as something went wrong somewhere. According to some reports, Brahamdagh sought
guarantees, which the security establishment was unable to provide.
Now the situation
seems to have reached a point of no return after he rejected any further
negotiations with the authorities here. He is now demanding an internationally
supervised referendum in the Baloch districts of the province to resolve the
crisis. His decision to seek refuge in India has closed all doors for a
political solution.
Our flawed policy of
support to the Afghan Taliban insurgents has been a major source of tension
with Kabul and our Western allies; it has been fully exploited by India to keep
the Balochistan pot boiling. Increasingly hostile relations with Kabul have
further complicated Pakistan’s predicament. For long, Islamabad had complained
about the Baloch insurgents taking sanctuary across the border in Afghanistan
and being actively supported by Indian intelligence agencies. Brahamdagh and
other Baloch insurgent leaders also lived in Afghanistan for some years before
moving to Geneva.
It is true that India
has played a role in fanning the flames of insurgency in Balochistan, but we
must also reflect on what has led to this situation. Balochistan had remained
relatively quiet for almost two decades, after the end of the insurgency in
1980 until the return to civilian rule in 1988, which brought the Baloch nationalists
into the political mainstream. What has exacerbated the situation, are our
uneasy relations with another neighbour, Iran. Through our own folly, we have
made our worst fears of opening up two fronts come true. Moreover, we still
don’t seem to have any realisation about how the proxy war in which we have
been involved has threatened our own national security.
Since Balochistan
became part of Pakistan, Baloch nationalists have led five insurgencies — in
1948, 1958-59, 1962-63, 1973-77 and from 2005 to date — which was brutally
suppressed by the state. Unlike the past, the educated middle-class youth,
rather than tribal leaders, are leading the current separatist movement. The
policy of killing and then dumping bodies of political activists had pushed increasing
numbers of people, particularly among the young generation, into the fold of
separatist groups.
Although their major
demands relating to gas royalties and the allocation of federal resources
remain to be fulfilled, democracy provided the Baloch population with at least
a sense of political participation. But the killing of Akbar Bugti ended that
relative calm. Instead of addressing the genuine grievances of the Baloch
people, the military-led government resorted to force causing thousands of
tribesmen to flee their homes.
An overwhelming
majority of Baloch nationalists had rejected secession and struggled for
autonomy within the framework of the Pakistani federation. But state repression
blurred the division pushing many moderates to ally themselves with the
radicals. The situation improved hugely after the nationalist parties decided
to return to the democratic political process and participate in the 2013
elections. Though the turnout of voters in many areas remained low the
elections came as a setback to the separatists. The formation of a coalition
government led by Dr Abdul Malik Baloch brought some political stability. But
powers have still not been fully transferred to the elected government.
The military seems to
have contained the insurgency to some extent, but there is still a long way to
go before the trust of the alienated population in the province can be
restored. The conflict has even divided political families. While Akhtar Mengal
is leading his party into the elections, his younger brother Javed Mengal has
his loyalties with the insurgents.
Similarly, Changez
Marri one of the brothers of Hyrbyair Marri, the leader of the Baloch
Liberation Army, is a minister in the provincial government. Certainly, the
government and the security agencies are confronted with huge challenges, but
an uninterrupted democratic process is the only way to restore the confidence
of the people of Balochistan in the federation. External forces can only fish
in the troubled waters.
The writer is an
author and journalist.
Published in Dawn,
September 21st, 2016
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