By Naveed Ahmad
Pakistan’s recent launch of Babur-III
missile signifies a massive change in strategic calculus vis-a-vis India. The
country’s strategic community has long been hoping that Pakistan completes its
nuclear triad sooner, which in simple English means possessing capability to
launch nuclear weapons from land, air and sea.
The Babur-III test proved that Pakistan not
only possess the ability to modify its existing land-based Babur-II cruise
missile with unwater-controlled propulsion and terrain hugging and sea skimming
flight characteristics but also to upgrade its existing diesel-electric Agosta
submarines to deliver the vital capability discreetly and effectively.
Pakistan fires ‘first
submarine-launched nuclear-capable missile’
The news was anything but amusing for
Pakistan’s eastern neighbour and arch rival. Typically, Indian ‘experts’ and
“Pakistan watchers” congratulated China for the successful test in North
Arabian Sea. But the frustration and anger over Islamabad achieving nuclear
second-strike capability is natural and was expected. The second-strike
capability refers to a nuclear power’s ability to attack the enemy after its
existing land and air-based nuclear delivery systems are destroyed. This can
only be ensured through arming its submarines with ability to launch the
nuclear-tipped missiles while sitting in depths of the sea away from the
enemy’s preying eyes.
The data gathered after the first test will
lead to further improvements and more tests of the Babur III cruise missile in
the future. Pakistan declared that the sophisticated projectile has a range of
450 kilometres with precise targeting characteristics of a cruise missile. Of
course, Pakistan will work on extending its range and payload significantly for
it’s the missile for the day after.
Since setting set up its Naval Strategic
Force Command in 2012, Pakistan actively worked on acquiring quieter
air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarines while modifying its existing cruise
missile arsenal to serve its second-strike requisites. Submarines are more
vulnerable to detection when they surface to recharge their air supply and
refuel. The Agosta class submarines of French origin, which were co-produced in
Pakistan Navy’s Karachi dockyard in the 1990s, are being supplemented with
eight “Hangor Class SSK” equipped with advanced AIP systems, which will enable
them to stay underwater for longer durations.
Pakistan test-fires Babur
cruise missile
India’s naval prowess
India has already leased a second
nuclear-powered Russian submarine while simultaneously carrying on its joint
venture programs with Moscow. The state-of-the-art, with built-in reactors,
modern nuclear submarines never have to surface to refuel and replenish air
supply. They enter service with the required nuclear fuel for its projected
lifetime of up to three decades. The miniaturised reactor results in an
underwater entity that is self-sufficient while being stealthy and lethal.
Alongside India’s Russia-supplied nuclear
submarines and Russian conventional-yet-upgraded underwater vessels, it has
also demonstrated the capability to use them to launch naval version of the
Agni III in March 2014. It later tested it from leased Russian submarine
Arihant in 2016. India is working with Russia to develop a naval version of
their BrahMos cruise missile besides extending its range.
Last year, India deferred its plan to go
ahead with a proposed order for three new French submarines alongside the six
it is already building in the country after leak of crucial secret data on the
Internet. It may slow down India’s own capability enhancing program but without
compromising its edge over Pakistan and compatibility against China.
Submarine advances
New level of deterrence
With both the countries capable of
second-strike capability, deterrence has reached another level of parity. Like
India, Pakistan too reportedly is in negotiations to lease a Chinese
nuclear-powered submarine. Does Beijing have the flexibility to lend one of its
vital strategic assets to a closer ally? Either side may not answer the
question. Given the significance of Gwadar port for Chinese maritime interests,
the possibility can’t be ruled out. That’s another matter as to which of the
two rival submarine fairs better in qualitative terms.
For now, India has superior submarines.
Pakistan, for that matter, has an edge in anti-submarine detection systems. The
navy has remained neglected in terms of weapon system upgrade. However, it
can’t be deferred any further anymore. Though Pakistan’s engagement with Russia
is slow but steady; both may open a chapter of naval cooperation for leasing
submarines. Moscow has become increasingly more liberal than it used to be in
selling military hardware to any country able and willing to purchase. Thus,
the India factor may not hamper Pakistan’s deal if it can financially afford
any weapon system available. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Navy must be working on
fine-tuning operational protocols at the recently created strategic command on
which effective use of submarine-based deterrents depends largely.
Naveed
Ahmad is a Pakistani investigative journalist and academic with extensive
reporting experience in the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Doha
and Istanbul and tweets @naveed360
No comments:
Post a Comment