Think Twice Before Getting Jittery

By Sohail Parwaz

In the second week of June 2015, the Indian Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, a former army officer, following an operation by Indian forces against alleged militant camps inside its northeastern neighbour Myanmar, threatened that the offensive was also ‘a message for Pakistan‘, which lies on its western border. The Indian media quoted the minister as saying, “India will strike at a place and at a time of our choosing” against all countries, including Pakistan, and groups harbouring “terror intent”.

This out of size statement came a day after the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address at Dhaka University in which he blamed Pakistan for spreading terrorism and fear in neighbouring India. Interestingly, in the very same speech he reminded the Bengali students about how India had intervened in Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation war. Modi blamed that Every now and then Pakistan keeps disturbing India creates nuisance, promotes terrorism and such incidents keep recurring. Surprisingly, an immediate note was taken by the Pakistan’s foreign office’s spoke person who while referring to the Indian Prime Minister’s statement said that it confirms Pakistan’s stance on India’s negative character against a sovereign neighbouring state. That was the time when the Pakistani leaders had to explain India in the language, latter understands. It was categorically mentioned by the Pakistani leaders that Pakistan was a nuclear state and the country does not maintain a nuclear bomb merely on shelves as a decoration piece or to use it as a firecracker.

By now the nuclear tick-tock in South Asia has become a convoluted issue, as India, quite off and on threatens Pakistan of the calamitous consequences and eventually Pakistan has to remind its worthy neighbour about the possession of most urbane nuclear arsenals and the delivering options. In February this year the US government expressed her worries about the trigger-happy Indians who may attempt to nuke Pakistan, however the reason given sounds very illogical, pathetic and petty that in case if terrorists make another November 2008 Mumbai attack like attempt then Indians will cut loose their nuclear weapons. First of all Pakistan has neither believed or never thought of supporting any such acts nor will do so in future, nevertheless, if such incidents can become the reasons then by now Pakistan would have served at least one dozen of them to India and half to it to Afghanistan. The US Senate, government officials and researchers are showing a lost sleep about any probable Pakistani nuke attack in case of any Indian belligerence. On the other hand, General Khalid Kidwai, a former Director General of the Strategic Planning Division of Pakistan’s remarks made some time ago that Pakistan had enough nuclear weapons to ensure that a war in the subcontinent was no longer an option, clearly suggested that the nuclear deterrence debate in this region has been settled, once for all.

The access of terrorist groups to fissile materials in India is evident from the fact that the safety and security of nuclear sites in India has remained all along questionable. In fact after the rising of a radical and fanatic provincial level leader to the national altitude the safety of Indian nuclear program has become more doubtful. Hence in the prevailing scenario the chances of any stupidity by the adventurous Indian politicians like Modi and the black goggles of RAW have suddenly ascended.

India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval confessed in one of his recent speeches that a ‘fourth generation’ war is being fought against Pakistan with different tactics and dimensions. Strategically speaking, India and Pakistan have their own threat perceptions, which have a common premise. India wants to be a strong nuclear state because of its fear of so called Chinese antagonism, while Pakistan also needs nuclear weapons because of its fear of Indian aggression. The only difference is that Pakistan has reached to a sophisticated level through an indigenous hard work and efforts while the Indians are directly or indirectly being helped by the US.

Although there are remote chances and possibilities of any industrial accident or other mishap on Pakistan’s side due to the classic security arrangements, yet most likely the jittery India would misinterpret any such mishap or troops move as a looming attack by Pakistan thus may push the ‘Button’ in panic. This issue has also been highlighted in a recently published book by Nathan E Busch: “Due to continual mistrust between the two countries, each would be likely to misinterpret military movements, missiles tests, or accidental detonations as an impending attack by the other side. The risks of misinterpreting each other’s motives are compounded by the vulnerabilities of their nuclear forces and the short flight times of the forces to key targets.”

When the strategic situation is so sensitive and alarming then it sounds logical to make the ‘audacious’ Indians understand about the disastrous fallout of their any probable immature nuclear or other adventure. There are few honest and blunt questions which the Indian policy makers, politicians and the flag-bearers of ‘fourth generation’ war must ask themselves.

The first and foremost thing which the Indians should seriously think about is the Pakistan’s retort in case of invading Pakistan. What the Indians should not forget is the placing and of positioning of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. They should never have a wrong impression about Pakistan’s intentions. It would be a disaster if the Indians would miscalculate the latter’s reaction. No wonder if that would be the time when the last screw of the nuke will be tightened by the Pakistanis.

The second important question which Mr. Modi should ask himself is about the guarantee for any limited war between the two, as he is dreaming of it. After all when there is a war between two, the opponent will never allow the other party to keep the war limited or restricted to a specific zone. So before making up their mind for any quest they must sincerely ask themselves that will the surety or the right to go for a limited war and that Pakistan will not change it into an all out war really stays with them? This is sensitive issue because once they will unfold the war; they will lose the initiative of rolling it back. Another important factor which they should never forget is the right to decide the intensity, level and extent of any menace of a limited war. The ‘ignorant invaders’ will have to keep it in mind that it will remain all along with Pakistan as a defender. It’s better to be late than to be sorry.

Thirdly, the Indians have detonated the nuke and that’s a fact. Irrespective of the debate that whatever quality or standard it is, nevertheless, they have yet not grown up and have not shown a least sign of being a conscientious nuclear state. They have not been able to comprehend it so far that, how one should behave while living in a nuclear neighbourhood. Nuclear South Asia is a phenomenon that the monkeys of Indian intelligence agencies have not been able to be aware of, thus can always jeopardize the peace balance in the region. Peeling off a peanut is altogether different from prodding a bomb. The sooner the Indians realise it, the more it would be in their own interest. Boasting and bragging should not be mingled up with sensitive decision making.

Lastly, Since Pakistan has ensured through a marathon research work and hard efforts the undisputed strategic equity in the region hence there are very remote chances of a conventional war between these two old rivals. For this reason the Indians must feed it to their narcissistic and overconfident minds that their land forces by no way should be permitted any foolish initiative or supposed ascendancy to trigger a conflict which later turns into a full fledge war that the Indian strategists and top brass is unable to roll back or control.

It’s always pleasant to dream about the wishes which are otherwise unattainable and there is no ban on dreaming so one may dream about a conquest however that doesn’t guarantee a victory to the dreamer in reality too. Such dreams more often than not turn into horrible nightmares. It’s high time for our neighbours to think twice (better if it is thrice) before getting jittery for any stupid escapade.