India’s intransigence all but kills SAARC

By Kamran Yousaf

ISLAMABAD: India’s irrational anger and divisive regional strategy has all but killed the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc). The summit of the key regional forum was unofficially postponed after New Delhi pulled out in a frantic move to isolate Pakistan politically and economically in the aftermath of the Sept 18 Uri assault. A formal announcement of postponement would be made by Nepal, the current chair of the bloc.

According to the charter of Saarc, which brings together eight member states in the region, the summit is postponed should any member state declines to participate. And this is exactly what Sartaj Aziz, the prime minister’s top foreign policy aide, said. “Even if one member pulls out, the conference cannot go on as per schedule,” he told a news channel.

India pulls out of SAARC summit in Islamabad

Aziz, however, made it clear that “whenever the summit takes place, it would be in Pakistan” dismissing Indian media reports that the venue of the conference could be shifted.

Taking cue from India, Bangladesh also decided to stay away from the summit, which was scheduled to be held in Islamabad on November 9-10. Afghanistan and Bhutan – both close India allies – have since followed suit, according to a Nepali government official.

Pakistan has called India’s decision ‘unfortunate’. And unfortunate it is. The 31-year-old organisation has a symbolic value for regional cooperation, though the bloc hasn’t made any significant progress to boost trade in South Asia. Moreover, India-Pakistan mistrust is widely blamed for the poor performance of the forum.

However, hopes rekindled for meaningful regional cooperation when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an unprecedented move, invited regional leaders, including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to his inauguration in 2014. The same year, Modi used the Saarc summit in Nepal to openly speak about the grouping’s failure to tap the region’s full potential.

The Indian leader’s speech gave an impression that the realisation has sunk in about the losing clout of the bloc – which was modeled on the European Union. But less than two-and-a-half years down the lane, it has now emerged that Modi’s move was nothing but just a gimmick.

The Indian premier has often advocated regional integration and reinvigorating organisations such as Saarc. But ironically, Modi himself has now dealt what many analysts call a fatal blow to the regional grouping, which represents close to 2 billion mostly under developed population and has the potential to transform itself on the lines of the EU.

Contrary to Modi’s rhetoric of fighting poverty and unemployment through regional cooperation, his government ganged up along with Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan to sabotage the Saarc summit.

This, however, is not the first time India has undermined the regional bloc. The Saarc summit had been delayed at least eight times in the past and on most occasions it was due to India.

Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Bhutan join India in withdrawing from SAARC summit in Pakistan

“The India move is clearly aimed at isolating Pakistan in the wake of Uri attack,” commented Dr Ishtiaq Ahmed, who teaches international politics at Quaid-i-Azam University. “But in doing so it (India) is setting a dangerous precedent. It is pushing the region from mutual cooperation to conflicts,” Dr Ishtiaq said.

In its reaction, Pakistan lashed out at India for what it called impeding the Saarc process. Foreign Office spokesperson Nafees Zakaria said India had a track record of impeding the Saac process. “Indian intentions of creating hurdles yet again are visible from the actions and statements at the political level during the last two months coupled with coordinated media efforts,” the spokesperson said.

New Delhi pulled out of the Saarc summit on Tuesday, citing an increase in cross-border terrorist attacks, “India is desperate to divert the international community’s attention from the atrocities and blatant human rights violations being committed by the Indian forces in India Occupied Kashmir,” Zakria said.

The spokesperson pointed out that major thrust of Saarc activities was to uplift socio-economic conditions of the people of South Asia, which has highest concentration of the world’s poor. “India’s negative attitude has had a direct bearing on the welfare and betterment in this region, which is highly regrettable,” he lamented.

Analysts believe that the postponement of the summit has all but killed the regional bloc. “Has Saarc died today? Probably not. But it has received critical wounds. And if first aid is not provided on time, it might die of excessive bleeding,” writes BBC Urdu columnist Wusatullah Khan.

Indian analysts agree the pull-outs would have little practical impact on Pakistan. “It basically scores a symbolic victory. As for Pakistan, this will push it even closer to China,” said Malik, head of the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation’s regional studies initiative.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 29^th, 2016.

SAARC summit falls victim to India obduracy

By Shafqat Ali

ISLAMABAD - An upcoming Saarc summit has fallen victim to Pak-India tension, deepening the shadows of conflict in a region which has the highest concentration of world’s poor and where inter-state tussles have already caused much damage.

The key summit was to be held in Islamabad from November 9 to 11 and until a few weeks ago, Pakistan was expecting Indian Premier Narendra Modi to attend it.

Adviser to Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz confirmed postponement of the summit yesterday, a day after India announced its boycott decision.

At the centre of the ongoing row is the old-running dispute of Kashmir, where Indian forces have intensified repression over the past three months and where 18 Indian soldiers were killed in a recent attack.

India blamed the Uri base attack on “militants from Pakistan” even before it started investigation. Pakistan rejected the allegations, demanding an international probe into the incident and alleging New Delhi of trying to divert attention from occupied Kashmir.

Announcing Modi’s decision, India’s external affairs ministry said there were other countries too that had expressed reservations about participating in the 19th Saarc summit.

“India has conveyed to current Saarc Chair Nepal that increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in the region and growing interference in internal affairs of member states by one country (Pakistan) have created an environment that is not conducive to the successful holding of the summit,” it said.

Soon after, Bangladesh said it was also pulling out. Afghanistan and Bhutan followed suit. Their decision had only a symbolic value though – because, as per rules, if one state decides not to participate in the summit, it is postponed anyway.

Adviser Sartaj Aziz pointed out that it was not for the first time as India had earlier also caused the summit to be postponed four times, as he dubbed the latest Indian boycott as another attempt to deflect world attention from atrocities in India-held Kashmir (IHK).

He said the summit - despite postponement - had not been officially cancelled. Whenever the conference takes place, it will be held in Pakistan, Aziz said.

However, reports from Nepal suggested the Chair was seeking changing the venue to make it possible to hold the moot somewhere else later.

Things between India and Pakistan started going  wrong three months ago after Indian forces resorted to use of brutal force against Kashmiris protesting against the killing of a young freedom fighter.

Meeting its historic and diplomatic responsibility towards Kashmir state, Pakistan raised the voice for Kashmiris – to the annoyance of India which blamed Pakistan of interfering in its internal affairs and accusing it of fanning cross-border terrorism, especially after Uri attack.

Islamabad denies any involvement in attacks in India insisting it is itself is a victim of terrorism. It has also launched a diplomatic campaign, urging the world to stop India from ‘perpetrating terrorism’ on its soil.

The two countries also clashed at the recently concluded UN General Assembly session and India asked the world to isolate Pakistan, terming it a terrorist state.

Failing to intimidate the nuclear neighbour through threats of military action, PM Modi a few days ago challenged Pakistan to compete with it in a ‘war on poverty’. But the very next day he threaten it with a water war, signalling that India could unilaterally revoke the Indus Water Treaty.

Foreign Office spokesman Nafeez Zakariya yesterday said, “India has a track record of impeding Saarc process.” He said Indian atrocities had attracted world attention and called the boycott a ‘desperate act’, .

“The major thrust of Saarc activities is to uplift the socio-economic conditions of people of South Asia... India’s negative attitude has had a direct bearing on the welfare and betterment in this region, which is highly regrettable,” he said.

As most in the Indian media dubbed the support of three other countries on Saarc moot boycott a diplomatic victory, many on Pakistani side termed it a ‘no big deal’. Saner voices on both sides however expressed regret on losing a golden chance for normalisation and harming a platform which embodies hope for regional collaboration.

Indian analyst G Pramod Kumar said the boycott would have made some sense “had the countries that supported India been Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka”, instead of those which “eat out of India’s hands”.

Former Ambassador Fauzia Nasreen said India had always delayed the dialogue process and used cheap tactics to defame Pakistan. “India wants to convince the major world powers about its seriousness for negotiations, but actually it halts any such efforts,” she said.

Defence analyst Maj-Gen (r) Mohammed Farooq said, “Pakistan should convince the international community about mischievous attitude of the Indian leadership. Pakistan is a nuclear power and it will not submit to Indian nefarious designs.”

Published in The Nation newspaper on 29-Sep-2016

Indian War Provocations

Sarah Khan

Indian belligerence against Pakistan is at peak these days. Indian Prime Minster Modi and his extremist team are raising slogans to “isolate Pakistan”, declare “Pakistan a terror sponsor state”, and impose “sanctions on Pakistan”. Failing to achieve any of the above mentioned malicious agendas, New Delhi has decided to suspend commission talks on “Indus Water Treaty”, a water-distribution agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank and signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960 by President Ayub Khan and Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

India is constructing Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric plants that violate the design parameters of the treaty. The differences on the designs of the two plants could not be resolved in various meetings of the Permanent Commission for Indus Waters, comprising one commissioner from each country, which is responsible for the implementation of the treaty. Secretary-level talks were then held between governments of India and Pakistan on July 14 and 15 this year. After the failure of secretary-level talks, on Aug 19, Pakistan initiated formal dispute settlement proceedings under the treaty.

While following its international obligations as per treaty, Pakistan referred the matters to the Court of Arbitration as provided in Article IX of the treaty. Pakistan also reminded the World Bank that the treaty gives the bank an important role in establishing a court of arbitration by facilitating the process of appointment of three judges, called Umpires, to the Court. On the other hand, India followed its flawed track of international obligations and its media reported on 26^th September that India has decided to suspend Indus Water Commission talks until “Pakistan-sponsored terror” in India ends.

Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Vikas Swarup has issued a statement that ‘India will not participate in upcoming 19^th SAARC Summit to be held in November this year’. In addition to this, India has rejected Pakistan’s proposal to resolve the Kashmir issue amicably.

Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz stated that “The Indus Waters Treaty is quoted as perhaps the most successful water treaty ever conducted between the two countries. Its revocation can be taken as an act of war or a hostile act against Pakistan.” If India tries to interrupt water flow into Pakistan, it will not only violate the Indus Water Treaty, but also set a regional state practice under which international law can be violated. India had also been constructing dams on the Kabul river in collaboration with the Afghan government in order to make Pakistan's land barren.

Time and again alleging Pakistan for Indian tailored terrorism against its own forces, unabated use of force against innocent Kashmiris, rejecting proposals of bilateral peace talks, boycott of regional cooperation forum and now suspension of international treaty which survived two wars is nothing but literal acts of belligerence against Pakistan which is raising the prospects of regional instability.

Though Modi and his team tried to create hue and cry over Uri attack in UNGA, but US was not convinced by India’s evidence against Pakistan. US officials conveyed India to resolve bilateral issues through diplomacy. Despite its failure to prove allegations against Pakistan, Modi’s madness remains intact as he has revoked an international treaty. He is playing a costly gamble as he is known for his huge appetite for risk. Such reckless action could easily spiral out of control and turn into a full-blown military confrontation. The underlying calculation of Modi’s escalation is that India can afford this brinkmanship given the country’s growing global influence. But it is hard to believe that the international community has the same appetite for conflagration in one of the world’s most combustible regions. It is high time for US/ UN to warn India over its war provocations because the risk of miscalculation among two nuclear neighbors is increasing and temperature is rising.

From Surgical Strikes to the Water War?

After bagging great embarrassment from all over the world, on political and diplomatic fronts the Modi Sarkar had a very little face to show at home where they promised its public to punish Pakistan for the latter’s so-called aggression and terrorist activities. The Uri drama was staged to ‘punish’ Pakistan; however smart Modi lost the surprise for his surgical strikes. The muck didn’t stop here rather it was followed by another defeat when they couldn’t get assurances about keeping their attacks local and restricted. The war mongering Indian media stooped extremely low to create war hysteria and making their public mad but at the end of the day they had nothing but humiliation in their sack.

The Indian PM has now taken another turn and has started threatening Pakistan to review Indus Water Treaty by saying on record that, “water and blood can’t flow at the same time”.

Here in the Subcontinent, the Indians are least pushed about the hovering conflict clouds and rapidly building dam after the dam. Out of 13 dams or hydroelectric projects, under construction in Indian occupied Kashmir, seven are on River Chenab; one is on Jhelum and one on the Indus. The seasoned and mature forecasters from the world over are showing lost sleep for the future wars, those will be fought over ‘blue gold’, as thirsty people, opportunistic politicians and powerful corporations, battle for diminishing resources. No one would have ever given a serious thought to it but unfortunately a series of reports from intelligence agencies and research groups indicate that the prospect of a water war is becoming increasingly probable. The Indian environmental scientist Sunita Narain, soon after receiving her 2005 Stockholm Water Prize Award said, “I am not here as a pessimist saying that India is doomed and that water wars are going to happen, and we are going to destroy ourselves. I am saying very clearly that if India continues on this route, yes there will be water wars…and we will become more and more crippled in our growth.”

Keeping Indian dirty intentions and insanity in mind, the Chapter sixteen of my novel ‘The Cornered Rogue” is purely based on the water war theory. My point of view is that if the freedom lover Kashmiris can raise Pakistani flag on their roofs then they can do anything for their love. I pray that my fiction remains a fiction but if the Indians ever think of choking the water share of Pakistan that will surely be a disastrous day. I can’t say that what will happen but I am sure of one thing that whatever will happen will not be good for any party; all the rivers will start flowing the natural way and no one will have any control on any of the rivers.

Here are the excerpts from my book:

“It was mid month of August 2012 and the snow on the Himalayan ranges had already melted quite enough while the Monsoon in the upper Pakistan and Kashmir was also on its prime, there was high flood in the rivers. Generally the Maghliar Dam site area would remain under dark, it was on that chilling and cold night that the main building and dam site had security lights left on. After the threat given by the Kashmiri militants outfit Hizbul Jihad the Indian government had already tightened the security at all the dams and Hydel project sites as they were not taking any chance. Maghliar Dam being a giant project was enjoying preference. It was a late hour of the night.  Security posts were being manned by the soldiers from Indian Army, who would talk to each other loudly to stay alert and awake. Few of them were patrolling the passages allotted to them as the beats. One of the patrols near the main building felt something moving in the main machine room area. The patrol leader who was an NCO (Non Commissioned Officer) challenged the stranger in dark and suddenly an AK-47’s burst took the patrol leader off-guard. While he was gunned down the others immediately hit for the ground and took cover of anything available in the near vicinity. Their leader had gone so some other patrol member shouted to fire back and take on the aggressors. Everyone was now aware of the identity of the assailants. The jittery and trigger happy soldiers, while spraying bullets around, wildly shouted for reinforcements and suddenly the detachments placed on the posts also left their places and ran to help their comrades. The exchange of fire was carried out for almost forty minutes until someone from the soldiers shouted to hold fire, as he suddenly realised that since the last few minutes it was all quiet from the adversary.

A careful search was started. The team found their two soldiers including the NCO dead but no wounded. The militants left behind nothing except few 7.62 mm calibre live rounds which someone probably dropped while withdrawing from the scene or some empty cases of the same calibre. The troops started consolidating the bits and bobs which took them the last few hours of the night.

By first light the area was cleaned up by the rescue teams who reached at the call. The commanding officer of the Rajputana Rifles that provided the security elements for the Maghliar Dam was also there. Just before the sunrise when search of the area was being carried out suddenly a huge explosion caught everyone off guard. People living miles away must have heard that blast because people at the dam site took no time to spot the dense smoke speedily rising over Dam’s spillway area. The great growl of forcefully detained millions of cusecs of water which suddenly had no obstruction in the way could be heard from miles away. The people present at the site had no other choice except to run for the lives without wasting any time since the area was soon expected to be swept away by the devastated water reservoir.

The militants managed to draw their attention away from the main spillway and succeeded in planting the heavy explosive in tunnel beneath the spillway. The Maghliar Dam was breathing its last while still in its infancy. Those who were living along the River Chenab banks trusted more in what Hizbul Jihad threatened than what the Indians said to calm their nerves. No wonder, most of them had already abandoned their dwellings. It was neither a pleasant morning for the Indians or for the Pakistanis.

The thunderous water of Chenab was speeding through different cities, towns and villages on the banks of river. It was about eight hours away from the Nadala Headworks but preparations to avoid getting caught unaware were already being made. The Pakistan Army choppers were hovering over river Chenab in that area around Nadala and were vigilant to rescue those who were in need of being lifted. The units in the Sialkot garrison were being kept on a two hours notice to move out for flood relief duties. The gates at the headworks, to some extent, were opened to avoid sustaining a sudden pressure by the additional quantity of water which was streaming down at a frightening speed. On the other hand the Maghliar Dam site was presenting a very gloomy and a devastating picture of the area. The furious current of aggressive water swept away the main dam site and turbine hall. Water roaring down from the area once known as spillway was noising thunderously. It could conveniently be picked as a scene from the block buster ‘2012’. Though it was a sabotage activity, nonetheless the Indians otherwise had a dam failure record. Apart from the Maghliar tragedy, at least nine Indian dams collapsed and 43.38 meter high Jaswant Sagar Dam which collapsed in July 2007 was the latest one. Had Hizbul Jihad not warned, the death toll would have been in thousands which was now less than a hundred. A wild thought:  What would have happened if the militants had destroyed it quietly? Gives one a quiver with goose pimples! In that case, the death rate would have been the same as it was in the failure of Banqiao dam of China which collapsed in August 1975, causing a 10 km wide and up to 23 ft high tide. It gulped 26,000 lives, later those who died of subsequent epidemics or famine were about 145,000.

There were threatening notes by Indians to teach Pakistan a lesson. The latter was quite sure that the former would definitely try to find an opportunity for a quest where Pakistan would be made to pay for the crime that it had never committed. However knowing well that being apologetic to the Indians would have meant facing more music, the Pakistani foreign office responded to the Indian threat in a similar symphony. By the same evening the international media covered the disaster extensively. The air ways were choked with the news, footages of the catastrophe. The western newspapers published the blow as a leading story with interesting headings like; The Chenab fallen back to Pakistan, The day the dam broke, Chenab: Coming Home, Pakistan leads Indo-Pak water polo by 1-0 and many such sensational headlines.

Above all the Indian government released the flood water in River Ravi, Sutlej and the long abandoned River Bias. The sis-frontier governmental quarters were taken aback as they were unprepared for an unpredictable and unprecedented catastrophic calamity. Within a week millions of Pakistanis from most of the provinces were out in the open, without shelter and under the scorching sun. A vast area on the banks of these rivers including some major and historical cities of Punjab and Sindh provinces were drowned. The inopportune people, who didn’t recover even from the 2010’s devastating floods, had to leave behind their lifetime assets and valuable belongings in panic when they had to run for their lives. The television channels and newspapers were showing a very gloomy, morbid picture. Unfortunate for a country that was already in crisis and was fighting a war on many fronts and now Mother Nature had also stood against Pakistanis. While the Armed Forces, without wasting any time, came out for the salvage operations, the government appealed to the international body for aid on humanitarian grounds.”

Let’s pray that God bless our enemy with sanity.

Indian army gags media after news report contradicts Uri attacks weapon accusation on Pakistan

BY MIAN ABRAR

Ministry of Defence asks media to get content verified by Army before publishing it

Left red-faced with the publication of news items contradicting previous claims of the Indian army that the terrorists involved in Uri attack carried weapons of “Pakistani markings”, the Indian government has introduced unprecedented media gags.

In a new direction to the media, the Ministry of Defence of India has issued a new direction to editors, stating that “all contents relating to the Indian Army, irrespective of ‘source’ of inputs, and intended to be published, should be pre-verified from the offices of media centres in commands and corps HQ or from this office through your defence correspondents”.

The MoD was responding to a story published in the Indian Express on September 21 which refuted the claim made by Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), during interviews to journalists that the weapons recovered from the four slain terrorists who killed 18 Indian soldiers at Uri on September 18 bore “Pakistani markings”.

Writing in the Indian Express, Sagnik Chowdhury and Praveen Swami had reported, “Four Kalashnikov rifles used by the terrorists, and handed over by the military to investigators Monday, bore no markings or insignia of any kind, sources familiar with the ongoing investigation said. There were also no military markings on barrel-fired grenades destroyed by the Army Monday, or on launchers fitted on the Kalashnikovs”.

Indian MoD’s demand has no legal basis – no government body has the right to censor or screen news before it is published, and freedom of the press is enshrined in the law via the constitutional right to free speech.

Israel is the only country with an otherwise unrestricted media where all media outlets – including bloggers and foreign journalists based there – are subject to a military censor when it comes to the reporting of news about Israeli military matters. Military censorship in Israel began in the 1960s as part of an understanding between the army and the media houses but eventually got established as a legal prerogative.

Though the defence ministry now says the Indian DGMO never made this claim – and cites the formal press release he had issued on the evening September 18 to buttress its point, the fact of the matter is that several media outlets had quoted Indian DGMO as saying so to TV channels for more than a day without the MoD or General Singh feeling the need to issue a denial.

Indian media has reported that not only has the director, media in the MoD, Abhijit Mitra – who is a serving colonel in the Indian army – now demanded that the newspaper “publish an errata and apology for having published a report full of falsehood” but that henceforth it submit reports on the army to be “pre-verified” by the relevant corps or command media office.

Indian Army lacks the brain to fight a war: The Economist

LONDON: Indian Army is the second largest Army of the world in terms of  manpower and human resource. However Indian Army is stained with scandals of all types at all ranks of service.

Indian Army has been under a vigorous modernisation programme for the last two decades along with the Indian Air Force and as well as the Indian Navy.

In last one decade alone India has become the largest arm importer of the world buying weapons of all kinds ranging from Air craft carriers to recently agreed Rafael Fighters  from France.

However Indian national and international experts on defence affairs have raised their concerns over the war strategy and planning of the Indian Armed Forces.

British magazine The Economist has on Friday written that despite being the biggest importer of weaponry, India still lacks the brain to fight a war.

According to The Economist, India’s land, air and naval forces lack communication. It added that most of India’s firepower looks great only on the paper. It added that though with 2000 aircrafts Indian air force is the 4th largest of the world, only 60% of its jets are able to fly.

READ MORE:  Indian Army claims of killing 10 Pakistani infiltrators is a fake drama: UJC

The magazine also noted that a naval fleet under construction for the last 15 years is still under construction. It said that the fleet must have been completed and delivered to the Indian Armed Forces by 2010 but its construction has been delayed till 2023.

READ MORE:  Indian Army one more brigade deployed in Kashmir to crush rebellion

It added that the experts were surprised at how frequently the terrorists are able to break into Indian airbases and also highlighted the role of corruption in the Indian army.

Indian Armed Forces capabilities and capacity has severely been questioned at all the national and international fora causing huge embarrassment to the tall Claims of some of the hardliners inside India.

Guns and ghee

TO MANY Indians, their country’s strategic position looks alarming. Its two biggest neighbours are China and Pakistan. It has fought wars with both, and border issues still fester. Both are nuclear-armed, and are allies with one another to boot. China, a rising superpower with five times India’s GDP, is quietly encroaching on India’s traditional sphere of influence, tying a “string of pearls” of alliances around the subcontinent. Relatively weak but safe behind its nuclear shield, Pakistan harbours Islamist guerrillas who have repeatedly struck Indian targets; regional security wonks have long feared that another such incident might spark a conflagration.

So when four heavily armed infiltrators attacked an Indian army base on September 18th, killing 18 soldiers before being shot dead themselves, jitters inevitably spread. The base nestles in mountains close to the “line of control”, as the border between the Indian and Pakistani-administered parts of the disputed territory of Kashmir is known. Indian officials reflexively blamed Pakistan; politicians and pundits vied in demanding a punchy response. “Every Pakistan post through which infiltration takes place should be reduced to rubble by artillery fire,” blustered a retired brigadier who now mans a think-tank in New Delhi, India’s capital.

Yet despite electoral promises to be tough on Pakistan, the Hindu-nationalist government of Narendra Modi has trodden as softly as its predecessors. On September 21st it summoned Pakistan’s envoy for a wrist-slap, citing evidence that the attackers had indeed slipped across the border, and noting that India has stopped 17 such incursions since the beginning of the year. Much to the chagrin of India’s armchair warriors, such polite reprimands are likely to be the limit of India’s response.

There are good reasons for this. India gains diplomatic stature by behaving more responsibly than Pakistan. It is keenly aware of the danger of nuclear escalation, and of the risks of brinkmanship to its economy. Indian intelligence agencies also understand that they face an unusual adversary in Pakistan: such is its political frailty that any Indian belligerence tends to strengthen exactly the elements in Pakistan’s power structure that are most inimical to India’s own interests.

But there is another, less obvious reason for reticence. India is not as strong militarily as the numbers might suggest. Puzzlingly, given how its international ambitions are growing along with its economy, and how alarming its strategic position looks, India has proved strangely unable to build serious military muscle.

India’s armed forces look good on paper. It fields the world’s second-biggest standing army, after China, with long fighting experience in a variety of terrains and situations (see chart). It has topped the list of global arms importers since 2010, sucking in a formidable array of top-of-the-line weaponry, including Russian warplanes, Israeli missiles, American transport aircraft and French submarines. State-owned Indian firms churn out some impressive gear, too, including fighter jets, cruise missiles and the 40,000-tonne aircraft-carrier under construction in a shipyard in Kochi, in the south of the country.

Yet there are serious chinks in India’s armour. Much of its weaponry is, in fact, outdated or ill maintained. “Our air defence is in a shocking state,” says Ajai Shukla, a commentator on military affairs. “What’s in place is mostly 1970s vintage, and it may take ten years to install the fancy new gear.” On paper, India’s air force is the world’s fourth largest, with around 2,000 aircraft in service. But an internal report seen in 2014 by IHS Jane’s, a defence publication, revealed that only 60% were typically fit to fly. A report earlier this year by a government accounting agency estimated that the “serviceability” of the 45 MiG 29K jets that are the pride of the Indian navy’s air arm ranged between 16% and 38%. They were intended to fly from the carrier currently under construction, which was ordered more than 15 years ago and was meant to have been launched in 2010. According to the government’s auditors the ship, after some 1,150 modifications, now looks unlikely to sail before 2023.

Such delays are far from unusual. India’s army, for instance, has been seeking a new standard assault rifle since 1982; torn between demands for local production and the temptation of fancy imports, and between doctrines calling for heavier firepower or more versatility, it has flip-flopped ever since. India’s air force has spent 16 years perusing fighter aircraft to replace ageing Soviet-era models. By demanding over-ambitious specifications, bargain prices, hard-to-meet local-content quotas and so on, it has left foreign manufacturers “banging heads against the wall”, in the words of one Indian military analyst. Four years ago France appeared to have clinched a deal to sell 126 of its Rafale fighters. The order has since been whittled to 36, but is at least about to be finalised.

India’s military is also scandal-prone. Corruption has been a problem in the past, and observers rightly wonder how guerrillas manage to penetrate heavily guarded bases repeatedly. Lately the Indian public has been treated to legal battles between generals over promotions, loud disputes over pay and orders for officers to lose weight. In July a military transport plane vanished into the Bay of Bengal with 29 people aboard; no trace of it has been found. In August an Australian newspaper leaked extensive technical details of India’s new French submarines.

The deeper problem with India’s military is structural. The three services are each reasonably competent, say security experts; the trouble is that they function as separate fiefdoms. “No service talks to the others, and the civilians in the Ministry of Defence don’t talk to them,” says Mr Shukla. Bizarrely, there are no military men inside the ministry at all. Like India’s other ministries, defence is run by rotating civil servants and political appointees more focused on ballot boxes than ballistics. “They seem to think a general practitioner can perform surgery,” says Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, who has worked as a consultant for the ministry. Despite their growing brawn, India’s armed forces still lack a brain.

Poverty eradication challenge: Modi might have to eat his own words

By Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: As he scaled down his war rhetoric on Saturday, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi dared Pakistan to eradicate poverty before his country. This challenge, however, would not be easy for him to win because World Bank data shows India will have to do a lot more than Pakistan in order to win the ‘war against poverty’.

At home, meanwhile, Modi’s challenge drew a sharp rebuke on Sunday from leaders of India’s own main opposition party. Congress leader Meem Afzal urged Modi to redirect his attention to India’s own challenges. “Modi ji, instead of giving suggestions to Pakistan, focus on what is happening in your own country,” he said. “No proper development is visible… you promised 100 million jobs in five years but you haven’t even created 50,000.”

Afzal has rightly advised Modi to put own house in order before throwing challenges to Pakistan. The World Bank databank and its report on ‘Addressing Inequality in South Asia’ suggest Pakistan fares far better than India in terms of people living below the poverty level, even though, overall human development indicators are worse in both countries compared to other developing nations.

While 8.3% of Pakistan’s population – some 14.1 million people – lives in poverty according to World Bank’s new $1.90 a day threshold, a staggering 21.3% in India – more than 260 million people – are destitute, showing Modi will have a harder time winning his own challenge.

The World Bank updated its traditional a dollar a day poverty line to $1.90 last year after changes in its purchasing power parity index, which was also updated from the 2005 level. The purchasing power parity index provides a fair idea of the extent of deprivation in countries, as all the countries apply different techniques to work out national poverty lines.

Against a stricter $3.10 a day poverty line – which World Bank also updated from the previous $2 a day criteria – 58% of India’s population or 708 million Indians live in poverty compared to 45% of Pakistan’s population or 76.5 million Pakistanis. The number of poor Indians according to this level is three-and-a-half times more than Pakistan’s total population.

 “India and Pakistan have to rise to the occasion and work together to bring out millions of people out of the net of poverty and hunger. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor can become a common platform for them,” said Dr Naeemul Zafar who till recently was working as member Social Sector for Pakistan’s Planning Commission.

Independent economists say that compared to Pakistan, India needs a much higher economic growth rate to take millions of people out of poverty. The other reason is that in India inequality was far higher than in Pakistan, which showed that the Indian growth model was not inclusive.

Education and health inequality in India is higher than in Pakistan, according to a World Bank report on addressing inequality in South Asia. Both the countries perform poorly on the Human Opportunity Index (HOI) and both have been dubbed as ‘low middle income nations’ by global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The extent of inequality in access in these two countries has consistently remained the highest in the region and has only decreased slightly over time, said the World Bank.

The report showed how worse the region was on human development indicators. The report finds that despite not being the poorest region in the world, South Asia has some of the worst human development outcomes worldwide. The comparison is even more dramatic when focusing on the outcomes of the poorest quintile.

The share of children under five who are stunted among the poorest quintile is above 50% in Bangladesh and Nepal and reaches 60% in India. India and Pakistan also have some of the highest infant mortality rates and under-five child mortality rates among the poor across all comparators. Of 1,000 children born in Pakistan’s poorest population quintile, 94 will die within 12 months and 120 within five years.

Gaps in neonatal mortality (death within the first 28 days of life) and in under-five child mortality (death within the first five years of life) between the top and the bottom quintiles are large, especially in India and Pakistan, said the World Bank.

South Asian countries also spend less on education than other countries at a similar level of development. In particular, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka all sit far below the international trend line between public spending on education and income level, according to the World Bank report.

India’s public spending per student on primary education puts it among the lowest quintile of all the regional countries, said the World Bank. Its public spending per student on secondary education is higher but still falls below the average of comparators.

The lender has advised that things need to change for South Asia to double its growth to 9%. Unless governments can raise more tax by broadening the base and spurring private sector development, South Asia will not end poverty and boost shared prosperity.

Despite being low middle-income countries, India and Pakistan heavily spend on their defense needs due to rivalry between them. An annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) revealed that India featured number six on the highest military spending list, up a rank from its position of the previous year. The SIPRI data puts Pakistan’s military expenditure in 2015 at $9.5 billion, higher than the previous year’s $8.7 billion. In comparison to that, India’s military spending in 2015 was $51.3 billion.

Before preaching to Pakistan, look into your backyard: Mayawati tells PM Narendra Modi

Written by RAMENDRA SINGH

ATTACKING PRIME Minister Narendra Modi over the Centre’s “failure” to prevent terrorist attacks, BSP chief Mayawati Sunday said that the PM’s advice to the Pakistani government to focus on the welfare of its citizens is a good thing, but he should look into his own backyard to see whether his record is such that he can preach.

“Is it so that one who is eating jaggery is suggesting others to avoid it?” Mayawati asked, reacting to the PM’s first remarks on the Uri terror attack at BJP’s national executive meet in Kozhikode on Saturday.

Addressing mediapersons, the BSP chief said that the advice was an attempt at “emotional blackmail”, and an attempt to divert people’s attention from Modi’s failures before the upcoming elections in UP and other states.

Mayawati said people are “enraged” over the killing of 18 soldiers in Uri, and expect “concrete assurances” and “effective action” from the government to prevent any recurrences. She, however, added that people are only getting “despondency” from the actions of the PM, who did not assure them that the borders would now be secure, and terrorists would not infiltrate.

Mayawati claimed the government appears to be “misleading people” instead of making a long-term policy with consensus and implementing it. “It is surprising that the talk of war against poverty, unemployment and illiteracy in Pakistan is being made to divert people’s attention from its (government’s) failures to stop the loss of lives and property in the terrorist attacks from across the border,” she said.

The BSP chief added that the Modi government’s record on poverty, inflation, illiteracy and unemployment has also been “very bad”, and that BJP had faced defeat in Delhi, Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu because it did not fulfill promises made during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

She claimed it is alarming that “this government will prove to be a failure like theCongress government” in securing the country’s borders and ensuring the well-being of soldiers, and that it will not be able to stop terrorist incidents along the borders.

Mayawati said Modi would suffer losses in the upcoming elections in various states because of his failures in public welfare and social security, so he has “cunningly tried to mislead people by linking India’s burning problems with Pakistan’s”. “It was not a big achievement but a political attempt to emotionally blackmail the people to affect the elections,” she added.

Targeting the ruling SP, Mayawati said people are suffering in “the internal rift and civil war of SP’s first family, caused by Mulayam Singh Yadav’s love for his son”. She added that law and order and developmental works are in a bad shape, while services in sectors such as health have come to a halt.

“The SP government seems to be playing fiddle like Nero while people are suffering from dengue and chikungunya… Governor Ram Naik and the Centre should direct the state government’s attention to its failures, so that people in distress can get some relief,” she said.

Who Dares, Wins

By Sohail Parwaz

It was a year back, when in October 2015, Former foreign minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri while talking to host Karan Thapar on India Today television,  had revealed that India planned to launch air strikes on Pakistani soil following the 2008 Mumbai attacks in order to target the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Tayiba (LeT) and Jamat ud Dawa (JuD). According to him, it was a tip given to him by Senator John McCain of United States (US) delegation expressed his concern that India may carry out surgical air strikes to target LeT and JuD in Punjab’s Muridke town. The delegation which visited him in Lahore comprised Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and US special envoy on Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke. The former foreign minister states that he told McCain that Pakistan Army would give a “measured” response in case of a strike inside its territory.

Mr. Kasuri expressed his apprehensions in 2015 whereas in the Chapter 19 of my fiction work “The Cornered Rogue” I feared about such stupidity by Indians about three years before Khurshid Kasuri could disclose it. Although the Indians couldn’t dare do any such insanity however this type of adventurism has always remained India’s utmost desire. Whatever happened in India the first three names the Psychos take are ISI, Hafiz Saeed or JuD and Azhar Masood or Jaish e Muhammad. There is a famous saying that, ‘Who dares wins’. The biggest problem is that although Indian have the dreams of carrying out such adventure, nevertheless, every time at the eleventh hour they lack courage and have to abandon their life time desire in the middle of sheer disappointment.

Like my previous two articles, I am again quoting few excerpts from the chapter nineteen of my book. The current circumstances will qualify my fears, although while thinking of any such attempt the Indians will have to be mentally ready to lose a lot in return. Please enjoy the quote:

“Jama’at-e-D’awut-e-Islami, one of the biggest philanthropist organisations of Pakistan had its main office at Muridke, a small town on GT Road, just few kilometers away from Lahore, the capital city of Punjab Province. The party did a great rescue job during the disastrous earthquake of 2005. So much so that the previous American President appreciated their missionary zeal and contribution to relief work, but surprisingly within just a few months the same President suddenly took an abrupt U turn and started criticising the same party allegedly for its militant role in Kashmir. It was the same party which was blamed for Mumbai carnage of 2008. A full fledged campaign was run by some unknown quarters to malign the party which was presented to the world as a demonic outfit, though the party always strongly protested against baseless allegations and resisted to the mudslinging.

The sun was about to be set and there was a usual great traffic rush on the GT Road. Akin Muridke there are some more busy cities like Gujranwala, Wazirabad and Gujarat lie on the GT Road. Those are considered bottlenecks as traffic invariably remains jammed at these centres for most time during the day. Definitely just before the sunset when people return home, these places are so crowded that one has to wait for a long time before making few meters move. When the Mo’azen (person who gives call for the Salaat) were reciting Adaan for  Maghreb Namaz in the main mosque of Jama’at-e-D’awut-e-Islami building the environs at Muridke, exactly at the same time a four ship formation of Mirage 2000 was taking off from Adampur airbase for an unknown destination.

The French made birds, having Indian tail signs, were maintaining very low altitude to avoid any acquaintance. However just before reaching the international border, they had no other choice but to jack up to give their weapons sufficient height for reaching target. At that precise moment the duty air defence and weapon controller sitting in a small mobile low level radar station monitored two small inward bound specks on his radar scope, entering Pakistan’s sovereign air space from east. The ever vigilant eye had no reason to keep any doubt in his mind, thus he immediately realized that he was looking at bandits. The formation was now depicted as a more menacing four ship flight on his radar scope. The rookie controller raised alarm and right away informed the air defense sector about a potential air strike inside Pakistan. By then the hostile birds had already released at least eight of AS-30L, ASM (Air to surface laser guided missiles usually carried by Mirage 2000 & SU30s of Indian air force) with ‘bitter affection’ for Jama’at-e-D’awut-e-Islami and were now turning back for their base.

Exactly at the time when the Indian four-ship formation was alarmingly close to the Pakistani air territory and was about to enter Lahore, the ADA (Air Defence Alert) hut at Mushaf Base of PAF was abuzz with bustle.  The ADA shifts were about to be changed, the on duty pilots were busy playing backgammon, a most favourite and popular time pass in all the squadrons of PAF. This ADA hut belonged to one of the oldest fighter squadrons, a crack F-16 unit. The silence in the hut was broken by a sudden call on the secured communication line from air defence sector headquarters. This message was a rather unexpected one. The duty controller of sector proclaimed in a panic ridden voice, ‘Scramble… scramble, two’. The Operations Officer in ADA hut had already punched the siren switch under the table in a scramble sequence so as to leave no doubt in the minds of the maintenance crew. In a matter of two minutes, two sleek silhouettes disappeared in the dying dusk over Sargodha.

The Imam was leading the Namaz at the D’awut-e-Islami’s mosque. Almost three hundred people were offering prayer behind him. Loudly he said, ‘Allah ho Akbar’ as soon as he knelt down for Sujdaa, all the files of Namazis followed him for the act in a remarkably synchronised manner. The Namazis were supposed to stay in Sujdaa for few seconds that was the time when suddenly a great pound ripped off everything. People in the surrounding heard a blast and were still shocked and baffled trying to guess the direction when three more hits made everything clear to them. The D’awut-e-Islami’s building was the target. Everyone, having thought in mind that probably some suicide bomber has struck, ran towards the site. The traffic on GT Road halted, life came to a stand still, there was a horrifying silence in the air except for screams and shouts for help. Those were coming from ruins and rubble of D’awut-e-Islami mosque and residential building.

For Indians it wasn’t that effortless this time, especially after the Muzaffarabad incident, where they took on an emergency hospital founded after the 2005 earthquake. The No.3 and 4 were still inside Pakistan when an air defence battery deployed in the suburbs of Lahore, equipped with MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defence System) type SAMs ( popularly known as Anza, obtained a lock on No.4 and released at least two missiles without wasting even a second. The poor guy couldn’t make an escape; the rest of the three had to enter back Indian air space with a heavy heart and certainly without their youngest colleague, a Flight Lieutenant.

Leader of the mission flew from Mushaf Base Sargodha contacted radar controller on radio and was given Angeles(slang used in the air forces for the altitude) and vectors for a possible interception. He turned in the direction and started searching his own radar scope for the reported brigands. He was briefed by the Controller that a four ship high speed formation had violated the air space of Pakistan three minutes ago and was now heading back. As he neared Lahore he also picked contact with a pair of retreating specks. The bandits were about to re-enter Indian air space. He informed the controller and sought permission to chase the hostile in their territory. He was sure that he could catch upon them in another 4 to 5 minutes and can shoot them down a few miles inside the hostile territory.

‘Negative, Sherdil leader, you are not cleared to chase the bandits. You must turn on a westerly heading and establish a CAP station 10 miles from the international border’ the ground control warned the leader. The dejected leader had no other choice but to accept the controller’s counselling. He desperately thought that had his bird flown a few miles faster things would have been different. Dolefully, the leader asked his number two to turn back. While he was turning back for the base suddenly he heard a yell on RT confirming that one of them got hit by some surface released weapon.

The event wasn’t a small one. It enraged the already infuriated Pakistanis who came out on the streets, from Khyber to Karachi. The national as well the international media was deliberately covering the Islamists in driving seats, although both had different connotations, yet coverage was conveying strong reaction of  Islamic parties and rightists. In big towns there were clashes between police and protesters who were demanding to declare a war against India for the latter’s deliberate and frequent aggressions. Those who had a longing for the Indo-Pak cordial relations and were chanting ‘Aman Ki Asha’ slogans had to retreat, go underground. The moderate political parties finding no other choice had to side with the right wing parties in their protest against the rival’s high handedness. Indian effigies were burnt in unprecedented processions taken out on short notices that clearly reflected revulsion and vengeance these two countries had for each other. In Islamabad protesters tried to march towards the Indian High Commission but were stopped by the army troops posted to block roads leading towards it. Surprisingly call by Islamic parties was greatly responded by Indian side of Kashmir, who choked the Srinagar and Baramula streets with their appearance. The Indian forces tried to crush processions with full force but to no avail. In Lal Chowk, Srinagar paramilitary forces opened fire at the mob, which caused death of few; it infuriated the already burning situation more. It was a bloody September for the inopportune Kashmiris, who remained calm for few years, but now looked for some sound reason to start their freedom movement once again.

To Isolate Pakistan Will Always Remain a Dream

By Sohail Parwaz

As I have already shared a chapter about the Indians playing foolish by going for a surgical strike in a haste thus getting an international embarrassment, now I am sharing chapter seventeen of my book ‘The Cornered Rogue” which is clearly predicting the birth of CPEC, the Iranian interest to join Pak China Block and Indians long for a limited strike inside Pakistan. Although the Indians have lost the most essential element of surprise but like a wounded snake they have still not given up the idea of launching a couple of local attacks inside Pakistan. Their only headache is that they don’t have a surety that Pakistan will keep it local and restricted.

The Indians have bagged a big embarrassment and humiliation because they were all set to teach a lesson to Pakistan and even Mr. Modi bragged to isolate Pakistan but on ground the situation is different; Iran showing interest to join CPEC, Russia is carrying out exercises with Pakistan army, CPEC is almost being finalised with the help of China while Turkey has thrown full weight behind Pakistan and amidst this one is failed to find ‘Isolation’ in the near and far distances. India is desperate and that’s known to all. She is expected to commit a blunder like a wounded snake as said earlier. Please read the following paragraphs from my fiction work in the above mentioned scenario.

“The Chinese invited Pakistani and Iranian prime ministers for dialogues on regional mutual interest. Outcome of this summit was quite fruitful for all the participants. As a first step, Pakistan was asked to construct the Gwadar-Turbat Highway which was to be linked to Chabahar-Zahedan Highway in Iran. At the same time already existing Gwadar coastal highway was to be expanded to link Karachi, Gwadar and Chabahar port of Iran. Chinese agreed to finance the project, certainly for their prime interest. Their dream to have an excess to the Central Asian Republics’ healthy markets was slowly coming true. Pakistan and China agreed to stand by Iranians in case of economic sanctions loomed by the Americans. Everyone seemed to be happy and contended except for Indians, who were told by Iranians about having a limited way in to the Chabahar seaport now.

The Americans protested to Chinese for sponsoring such ideas, which the Chinese bluntly turned down by saying that main regional players of the game have rights to watch their interest. America as an outsider has no right to object upon. Not only this, China warned the Americans not to push Pakistan against the wall. The Americans, however, realised the economical disaster back home that compelled them to wind up their bases, fleets in phases from all over the world including from the Persian Gulf. They didn’t pursue their protest but did keep the bitterness pending for some other appropriate time. Their main interest was to have a safe exit from Afghanistan. Rest happening in the region was of secondary importance to them for now. With Pakistan, India always had tense bilateral relations but now she was not happy with Iranians too – certainly for latter’s tainted attitude – without realising that; they asked for it themselves when they didn’t play some fair games with the Iranians. Deep grudge, vendetta against Pakistan was growing with every coming day.

The DGMI Pakistan Army had some very breath taking information available at his table. Neither it was hearsay nor some gossip. It was pure HUMINT information gathered through credible sources, corroborated by troops deployed on international border as well as the LOC. Major General Faisal, the Director General Military Intelligence wanted to be hundred percent sure about the authenticity of this information before reporting his commander, the Army Chief, General Muhammad Khalid. When he consulted his colleague DGMO, General Khurram Naeem on the issue, latter too had same sort of reports. The matter was quite serious as the intelligence agencies had picked some mass movement of the Indian troops towards the border areas in a few sectors. Some heavy concentration was seen in the South, in Rajasthan, up in the North in Kashmir. Now the DGMO had no reason not to talk to his counterpart in India on hotline. It was responded by General Ashoke, ‘Hello General! A pleasant surprise to hear from you after quite some time! I am sure all is well?’ ‘It was a surprise for us as well when the Indian troops were noted moving unannounced so close to the border at more than one location’ Khurram without much ado came to the point.

For a moment there was silence at the other end then came, not a very firm reply, ‘Actually General we are concentrating in Thar Desert near Bikaner for routine exercises that’s the only location where you could see us crowding.’ ‘Routine exercises? Though it’s entirely your command’s prerogative but frankly speaking this is not the part of the year when you people carry out routine exercises? Besides that, dumping of matching logistic reserves has been noted in the built up areas. Well that carries a big question mark General? That’s one thing, then there is yet another worrying issue’ General Khurram paused for a moment, then continued, ‘We have a mutual agreement that whenever any one of us would move so close to the international borders the other party would be informed about reasons or intentions in advance, if I am not wrong.’

Ashoke laughed faintly as if he was enjoying Khurram’s lost sleep, ‘But we aren’t near the international borders General.’ ‘You mean coming miles ahead of Bikaner in Desert, from where even vehicles tactical numbers are readable, can’t be termed as coming close to International borders, General?’ ‘Well if that’s so then I am informing you now that we intend carrying out our joint forces exercises’ Ashoke took an abrupt U turn to avoid any further cross questioning but the Pakistani DGMO had a lot more in his bag to shoot and he was in no mood to let him go like that. ‘That you are doing now, I am afraid, a bit late General Ashoke? So much so was for Thar sector but what about your assembling and movement in Kashmir sector? A mass scale movement has been observed on Jammu-Leh Road besides concentration at Drass, Kargil and Batalik’ General Khurram said in a plain voice. ‘Well that is a preemptive to counter any 1999 like Kargil adventure in future’ Ashoke came back with sarcasm. ‘But do you find some wingding, opposite to you, across the LOC now?’ enquired General Khurram with equal travesty and after giving a pause of few seconds he continued, ‘so we reserve the right to cater for these unusual and abnormal built ups?’ ‘As you wish’ Ashoke, having no other suitable, diplomatic term available, said helplessly. ‘General! I am sure that soon we will exchange details about the deployment all along the international border and at the LOC, if we are interested in keeping mutual trust intact ….. Have a good day General’ Khurram summed up and put down the phone.

Things were quite serious, needed an immediate attention. The talk about Indian Cold Start strategy, over heard by Gulsher few months back during a reception at Delhi was in the air among GHQ circles. The worried General thought for a while and then gave a buzz to the concerned director, asked him to prepare a brief about the Indian build ups on Eastern border, ASAP. Within 24 hours the Army Chief was informed through the CGS who immediately asked for a briefing at MO Directorate as early as possible since General Khalid wanted to brief the Supreme Commander of the Forces (The President) not before he himself was absolutely sure about the Indian intentions or future adventure plans if any”.

Why Indian Minorities Support Uprising in Kashmir?

By Sajjad Shaukat

India has deliberately intensified war-like situation with Pakistan since September 18, this year when “four fidayeen, highly-trained militants who were carrying guns and grenades stormed a base in Uri, close to the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan and killed 18 Indian soldiers, as Indian military sources said.

In this regard, India’s top civil and military officials and their media have been creating war-hysteria against Pakistan by accusing that the militants infiltrated across the Line of Control from Pakistan before attacking the base in Uri and Indian troops were “ready to give a befitting response.”

India has started concentration of troop, moving heavy arms and weapons along the LoC in the Indian side of the Indian held Kashmir.

Taking note of Indian threat of war, Pakistan’s armed forces have become high alert, and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen. Raheel Sharif said on September 23, the Army will defend “each and every inch” of Pakistan “no matter what the cost.”

It is notable that a few days before the attack at the Uri base, Indian Army Chief Dalbir Singh Suhaag stated that India has to be prepared for “swift, short nature of future wars” because of frequent ceasefire violations by Pakistan and its “new methods” used to keep Jammu and Kashmir on the boil.

In fact, with the help of Indian intelligence agencies, particularly RAW, India has itself arranged the Uri Base attack not only to defame Pakistan, but also to achieve a number of sinister aims.

Since July 8, 2016 against the martyrdom of the young Kashmir leader Burhan Wani by the Indian security forces in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) in wake of continued sieges and prolonged curfew, Indian forces have martyred more than 100 innocent persons who have been protesting against the martyrdom of Burhan Wani.

Even, the minority groups of India have also been supporting the new phase of uprising in the Indian-held Kashmir by condemning brutal tactics of the Indian security forces, employed on the innocent Kashmiris.

In this regard, on August 29, this year, in a joint news conference at Srinagar, various Sikh bodies including Sikh Intellectual Circle Jammu and Kashmir, Shiromani Akali Dal, International Sikh Federation and Sikh Student Federation condemned the use of pellet guns and ‘brutal forces’ against unarmed protesters in Valley and favoured the right to self-determination for the people of the State.

Chairman of Sikh Intellectual Circle Jammu Kashmir, Narindar Singh Khalsa said, “The right to self determination should be given to the people of Jammu and Kashmir, which was promised by the then Prime Minister, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. We (Sikh community) support people of Kashmir in their struggle of Plebiscite.”

Refuting the claims any security threat to the Sikh community, Singh elaborated, “Those who say that Sikhs are in danger and should be given security in Kashmir are the puppets of RSS and other Indian agencies. The fight of Kashmiris is not any religious fight, but a fight for justice and right to self-determination.” He also insisted upon New Delhi to engage in a meaningful dialogue with the Kashmiris and Pakistan.

Similar sentiments have, also, been coming from the Dalits (Low caste Hindus population of India) in the India controlled Kashmir, as they have supported the right of self-determination of the Kashmiri people, while condemning Indian extra-ordinary use of force to crush the new uprising in Kashmir.

However, question arises as to why minority groups like Sikhs and Dalits favour uprising and right of self-determination of the Kashmiris.

It is mentionable that India which apparently, claims to be the largest democracy, acting upon the principles of liberalism and secularism has broken all the records of violence, genocide and massacre perpetrated on various ethnic and religious groups, entailing the community of its own lower castes.

Taking note of the growing intolerance and plight of minorities in India on June 7, 2016, Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission of the US Congress examined the current state of human rights in India, challenges to fundamental freedoms and opportunities for advancement.

The report said, “Despite Constitutional provisions…abolishing the legal existence of untouchable or Dalit castes, the caste system remains deeply ingrained within Indian society, leading to ongoing discrimination. Dalit communities, which make up a quarter of India’s population, are disproportionately at risk of suffering from major human rights concern in India.”

It further wrote, “Religious minorities also face growing challenges. According to the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom’s most recent report, “In 2015, religious tolerance deteriorated and religious freedom violations increased in India. Minority communities, especially Christians, Muslims, and Sikhs experienced numerous incidents of intimidation, harassment, and violence, largely at the hands of Hindu nationalist groups…these actions, coupled with perceived crackdowns on groups or individuals critical of the Indian government, have many concerned that the rights to freedom of speech and freedom of association are being increasingly curtailed.”

Notably, since the leader of the ruling party BJP Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India, various developments like unprecedented rise of Hindu extremism, persecution of minorities even of lower cast-Hindus, forced conversions of other religious minorities into Hindus, ban on beef and cow slaughter, inclusion of Hindu religious books in curriculum, creation of war-like situation with Pakistan etc. clearly show that encouraged by the Hindu fundamentalist outfits such as BJP, RSS VHP, Bajrang Dal and Shiv Sena including other similar parties have been promoting religious and ethnic chauvinism in India by propagating ideology of Hindutva (Hindu nationalism). Especially, assaults on Christians, Muslims, including their places of worships and property have been intensified by the fanatic Hindu mobs.

Instances of ‘Hinduized police’ and the biased judiciary is related to many cases such as Gujarat programmes, Sikh riots, violence against Christians, Dalits and other minorities whose cases are still unregistered-pending or unheard, while in many cases culprits have been exonerated due to the interference of the Mod-led government.

It is worth-mentioning that faced with declining provincial power under the centralizing government of Indira Gandhi, Akalis mobilized the Sikh peasantry in a major campaign for Punjab’s autonomy in 1980. The initiative centered on a combination of economic, cultural, constitutional, and religious demands. Between August 1980 and September 1981, the Akali Dal held seven peaceful agitations. The party decided in February 1981 to strive for the implementation of the Anandpur Sahib Resolution. The resultant Dharam Yudh Morcha (Righteous Struggle) of 1981-84 presented four key demands: recasting the Indian constitution to increase states’ autonomy, the return of Chandigarh to Punjab, state control over river waters, and an all-India gurudwaras act.

Nevertheless, it was owing to injustices by the Indian rulers that the Akali Dal’s adoption of more narrow demands like the constitutional recognition of Sikhs as separate nation and declaration of Amritsar as a holy city followed the raising of the Khalistan slogan by non-Akali Sikhs in 1981 and a sudden decline in Sikh-Hindu relations after the murder of Punjabi Hindu press baron Lala Jagat Narain in 1981.

Meanwhile, India’s Operation Blue Star added fuel to the injuries of Sikhs. It was a military operation which occurred between 3–8 June 1984, ordered by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to control over the Harmandir Sahib (Golden Temple) complex, the holiest shrine of the Sikhs in Amritsar, Punjab, and to arrest Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale and his followers from the complex buildings. Bhindranwale was the only leader who had boldly been fighting for the genuine rights of the Sikhs.

Indian Army led by General Kuldip Singh Brar killed all 251 Sikhs along with Jarnail Singh Bhi. The brutality of the ‘Operation Blue Star’ was not confined to the Harmandir Sahib. Indian armed forces simultaneously attacked 40 other historical gurdwaras all over East Punjab. When Sikhs in other states came to know about the desecration of the Harmandir Sahib and massacre of their brethren, they quickly left for Punjab. New Delhi tried to stop them before they could reach Punjab. Many Sikhs were assassinated on the way and many others were arrested. According to an estimate, about 50,000 Sikhs were killed within a few days. The whole Amritsar city was sealed and was burnt.

In the same year of November, two dedicated Sikhs named Beant Singh and Satwant Singh who were posted at Premier Indira Gandhi’s residence in New Delhi, assassinated her. Then Hindu riots erupted in the capital and other cities in which more than 15,000 Sikhs were murdered in broad daylight by the supporters of Indira Gandhi, while police watched silently so as to provide the Hindus with free hand to massacre Sikhs.

Afterwards, Sikhs organized themselves into an armed power in order to fight the Indian state terrorism. Many Sikhs left India to escape religious persecution. Sikhs have spread out all over the world to keep the movement of Khalistan alive. In this respect, their struggle is still going on.

In this context, a renowned scholar, Dr. Sangat Singh writes in his book, “The Sikhs in History”, remarks, “The Indian government has killed over 1 million to 1.2 million Sikhs. Since 1947, Indian government has also killed 50,000 Christians and 100,000 Muslims. The only way to stop this state terrorism is to create a Khalistan state, where Sikhs and other religious people can enjoy their freedom.

It is noteworthy that in wake of new phase of uprising in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), pressure on the Indian government has been mounting both domestically and internationally.

In this respect, A. S. Dulat, former chief of India’s spy agency RAW, published in the magazine, ‘The Wire’ on August 27, 2016 said “Pakistan’s role is not the only catalyst for the crisis, talks about the need for the Indian government to start talking to separatist leaders in the Hurriyat Conference, Pakistan, and other important political players.” Indicating as to how Vajpayee’s and Narendra Modi’s strategies on Kashmir are poles apart and elaborates on why Kashmiris warmed to Vajpayee, he stressed, “India should engage in principled dialogue with people in the Valley, instead of taking a naïve and aggressive line.” His condemnation of the Modi government for not talking to Hurriyat and for its high handedness in IOK is spot on. He rightly concludes that the Kashmiri uprising is 100% indigenous.

And in response to the letter of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, on August 19, this year, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon deplored the killings of the Kashmiris in Indian-held Kashmir, and urged India and Pakistan to settle Kashmir and other issues through dialogue by offering his “good offices”.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had pledged to emphatically highlight violence against the innocent Kashmiris in the IOK during the annual session of the UN General Assembly. While, addressing the General Assembly on September 21, Prime Minister Sharif said that Kashmiris had to face atrocities and barbarism from India, which made Burhan Wani, the face of freedom movement. He added, “Pakistan fully supports the demand of the Kashmiri people for self-determination, as promised by several Security Council resolutions. Their struggle is a legitimate one for liberation from alien occupation.”

At this critical juncture, pressure is mounting on the fundamentalist government of Modi on a larger scale, Sikhs who reside abroad and have effective organizations in the West should use the Kashmir uprising to vent anti-Indian sentiments and their grievances against the state, especially in Punjab.

And with Sikhs and Dalits’ support, Muslims almost become a majority in this strategically vital area of IOK. Hence, they should avail this opportunity.

Besides giving a matching response to Indian war-hysteria, Pakistan’s media must keeps on highlighting the Indian atrocities in the Indian held Kashmir, as war of liberation in the Valley has been accelerated. Pakistan’s top officials and embassies abroad must continuously point out the Kashmir issue, while emphasizing the right of self-determination of the people of Kashmir, as recognized by the UN resolutions.

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com