By Sohail Parwaz
There is a quick development in Indo-Pak relations during
last few days, especially after the Uri attack drama. The events need a serious
analysis which I shall be writing soon. However what plans they have now is the
point I dare discuss here. I wrote a predictive fiction “The Cornered Rogue”
back in 2012. While analysing many events of the past I drew fictional events.
Among those Kulbhushun Yadev’s arrest, Indian attempts for a surgical strike,
Cold Start doctrine’s trial and many other are mentioned.
What the Indians have the plan for now, as I read it is to
have a face saving in front of their public whom Modi promised to teach
Pakistan a lesson. Unfortunately his forces commanders have bluntly warned him
against any misadventure and not to take Pakistan lightly. I am quoting few
excerpts from the chapter seven of my book where the readers may find the
Indian Air Force having a temporary victory. However, it is for certain
reasons; to qualify that the Indians were and they are aggressors, they raided
the field hospitals in Muzaffarabad which were raised for the survivors of 2005
earthquake and the attack was unannounced. Rest assured that it was to make the
things look natural. A good soldier never under estimates his rivals. When my
book was published our pride JF-17 Thunder was under trial hence the Indians
had a slight edge over the PAF, so keep that in mind but reading the complete
novel will make the things clear.
Here I quote those interesting paragraphs:
“In the wee hours of a morning of March 2012 in Kashmir on
Pakistan side, the dawn was still a little far off. Mostly the people in
Pakistan, India and Kashmir on either side of the LOC (Line of Control) were
still asleep or the Muslims mostly were preparing for their Fajr Namaz at that
time. A flight each of SU-30s and Jaguars were preparing to take off from
Srinagar airbase of the Western Air Command. Though the winters were gradually
departing yet it was quite a chilly morning at a base situated 5458 feet ASL.
The crew was silently but actively arming all the aircrafts. The two SU-30s,
armed with BVR missiles were supposed to take off first and to act as the
fighter sweeps. They were to enter the Pakistani airspace, challenge air
defence elements of PAF19 if any and to shoot them down due to their sophisticated
weaponry. The four Jaguars were to follow for the strike and finding no
opposition, were to hit the target, alleged terrorists camp where
according to the Indians the culprits of November 2008 Mumbai and February 2012
Delhi carnage were trained.
The aircrafts started roaring and soon they were airborne.
Maintaining a strict radio silence as the sweep aircraft neared the LOC, their
airborne intercept radars started painting the hostile birds on the other side
of the LOC. Not that they were not expecting a welcome but this sudden
switchover from the mock combats to the sphere of true combat backdrop made
them sweat under their oxygen masks. The sweep leader as briefed designated the
lead element of what appeared as a two ship CAP20 while his number two took the
other one; they waited for the range to reduce so that they could unleash their
deadly BVR missiles. At the same time, stress made their breathing heavy, as
now they could feel the sweat trickling down their foreheads. They were praying
for an end to this as soon as possible. The thought, that the weapon system
akin to theirs was not possessed by the challengers thus lacking the first
shoot capability, brought them little relief. The leader was thinking of
launching the missiles before his targets could get the wind of their presence.
He decided to initiate a defensive maneuver, known as ‘Beam and Drag. ‘This
would complicate their task and who knows Pakistanis might turn the tables on
them. As the leader was gripped by his thoughts he suddenly noticed that his
formation was only a mile short of the gory LOC, for they were flying at250
feet above terrain to dodge the low air defence radars. He knew he would be in
a position to launch his missiles shortly. Just then his worst fears turned out
to be a reality as he saw the antagonists turning left and executing a beam.
Damn! This meant that the Sukhois would have to ingress further inside hostile
territory to claim the lives of their alert enemy, he thought to himself.
Meanwhile the strike package entered from a southern entry point for their
intended target.
The sweep leader instructed his number two to punch the
extra fuel tanks, a certain liability in event of a dogfight. He knew that the
surprise was ruined and now either they had to make a short work of the CAP and
give an all clear signal to the waiting strike package or suffer the
humiliation of being bounced off by an inferior gladiator. The leader
instructed the formation to hit the after burners and attain maximum
permissible speeds. With this done his plane started talking, gaining precious
speed and the distance between the combaters reduced further. He now closed on
to the adversaries, before he could launch his weapon he saw the enemy CAP
executing a drag maneuver. The leader bellowed out of frustration. He knew he
was up against a determined and skilful pair, any further pursuit would mean
pushing his luck. He decided to let it go, called for his wingman to start an
extrication maneuver. They turned hard right and hit the deck to press home
while looking at his GPS which showed their position to be 25 miles inside
hostile territory. As he was looking inside his cockpit for navigational cues
he heard his wingman reporting a chasing rival bird. The leader looked for a
threat in his RWR and was scared to see that radar was painting them from real
close, hence they had no option except to order a defensive turn to pick tally
with two F-7Ps of PAF in their hind quarters. He turned effortlessly as his
Sukhoi had superior thrust to weight, allowed extreme maneuvering and launched
his AA-11 archer IR missile against one of the two adversaries who looked to be
in a menacing position to launch his inferior sidewinder missile which required
the shooter to be in a tight cone behind enemy to score a kill. Soon he could
witness his missile impacting the enemy and thanked his stars and the
government for endowing him with a cut above technology to maintain supremacy
in air. During the punch-up he lost sight of his number two, before he could
call him he saw a blazing streak in the air and then heard his number two’s
voice over radio confirming the dispatch of the second CAP aircraft. They took
a sigh of relief for not only surviving a closes have but also achieving their
primary task of facilitating the strike package. The Jaguars meanwhile reached
their target, one by one expended their payload and turned back for their base.
The result of Indian aircrafts ‘surgical strike ‘was an outcome of the itch
they had since November 2008Mumbai attack and then February Massacre of 2012.
The victory brought a faint smile on the leader’s face.
In no time the news about Indians surgical strike against a
‘Militants’ Camp’ near Muzaffarabad emerged as breaking news on dozens of news
channels around the world while the Pakistani channels were showing the live
coverage of the site, a totally destroyed set up in the environ of
Muzaffarabad, the Pakistani part of Kashmir. Since Kashmir is a disputed land
ever since 1948, crossing over to both parts by the Kashmiris is a very common
practice, hence establishing of the camps by the freedom fighters on either
side of the Line of Control was also not a strange practice. It was the Indian
forces’ atrocities on their side of the Kashmir that compelled the militants to
crossover to Pakistan side of Kashmir make the training camps and send the
guerrillas across for countering the Indian military actions. A handsome number
of people present in the camp were killed in this air raid while hundreds of
them were wounded. The global analysts were asserting it as result of some
sheer grudge nurturing in the Indian hearts since the Mumbai and Delhi
episodes. General Muhammad Khalid met the Prime Minister immediately. It wasn’t
a small event. The adventure could have escalated into a full fledge war as the
strike by the Indian air force was sudden and reckless. Makhdoom talked to the
Indian PM on hotline immediately after his meeting with the Army Chief. He gave
his unambiguous and explicit mind to his counterpart. Just before noon the
Indian High Commissioner in Islamabad was also summoned by the foreign office
and a strong worded formal protest was handed over to him. There was an
abnormal diplomatic movement in Islamabad, where the seasoned diplomats and the
ambassadors from the European Union and some Middle East countries were running
to and fro to calm down the Pakistanis. The Americans and the Chinese were also
quite disturbed over it. Since morning they were shuttling between the PM
secretariat, GHQ and some embassies while in Delhi notable diplomatic
activities were taking place. Amidst this, Americans were trying to appease the
enraged Pakistanis while advising the Indians to refrain from provoking the
former. On the other hand, Chinese in very plain and bitter words warned the
Indians to face the consequences in case if they ever thought of any such
adventure in future. Most of the Indians took it as a successful revenge;
however a notable number of Indian intellectuals, columnists, analysts and
representatives of the civil society were perturbed over the killing of
innocents. They strongly condemned and criticised this indefensible surgical
strike. They called this a mindless and inexcusable adventure! According to
them the Indian high ups had asked for trouble.”
I may be sharing few other interesting chapters in the
coming days corroborating to the developing situation in the Subcontinent.
Although I have shared what the desperate Indians have in their minds to do but
one shouldn’t forget what the Indian forces’ chiefs have suggested to their
extremist prime minister. Their advice was, “This is not the Pakistan of 1971”.
The Indians can be fool enough to go for some face saving surgical strikes but
only if someone assures them that Pakistan will keep the war limited and
unfortunately no one is ready to extend that surety to them because that would
be purely Pakistan’s prerogative.
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